Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Dead Heat for 2024 U.S. Presidential Race

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in the 2024 presidential race, with Harris gaining momentum as Trump’s odds decline. Polymarket and recent polls show Harris with a slight edge.

Former President Donald Trump began the election cycle with a significant lead over the Democrats in the race for the White House. Now, with President Joe Biden out and Kamala Harris in as the party’s candidate, that lead no longer exists.

Over the last month, Trump’s odds of re-taking the White House have declined by 13 percentage points, while Harris’ have increased by 34 percentage points – first as the likely successor to replace Biden in the last days of his campaign, and then as a political rival to Trump. Trump is down from a high of 72% in the days after the first Presidential debate against Biden, which proved to be a disastrous affair for the Democrats, with Biden saying afterward he “screwed up.”

This bump for Harris means that Polymarket is now aligned with polling. A poll conducted by CBS News between July 30 and August 2 gave Harris a 1 percentage point lead over Trump, which is a tie considering the poll’s 2.1 percentage point margin of error. Polling aggregator 538 called the race a statistical tie around the same time, and in the days since, Harris has created a small edge in the polls.

Meanwhile, Trump-themed PoliFi tokens are also down in the last month with a deeper decline than polling or prediction markets. MAGA, the first Trump token, is down nearly 38% over the last month, according to CoinGecko data, while Solana-based Tremp is down 40%.

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