Bitcoin failure to hold the $90K–$85K region has shifted momentum decisively into bearish territory. As on-chain flows worsen and market liquidity weakens, a downside continuation toward $78K–$72K becomes the dominant scenario for late November.

You can explore more daily updates in our dedicated Bitcoin News section.

Market Overview: Defensive Mode Deepens Across Key Indicators

Bitcoin’s recent breakdown highlights a clear deterioration in bullish structure. Multiple technical and on-chain metrics reinforce this shift:

• RSI (1D) dropped into the 35–40 zone — oversold, but lacking reversal strength.
• MACD crossed bearishly and continues expanding downward momentum.
• Volume spiked sharply during the selloff, indicating strong distribution, not panic-only selling.
• EMAs (20/50/100) are all sloping down, with price now trading below each — a structurally bearish alignment.
• On-chain flows worsen:
  • CryptoQuant reports increasing exchange inflows from whales and miners, a classic precursor to sell pressure.
  • Glassnode shows declining stablecoin reserves, meaning buy-side liquidity is weakening.

Top analysts echo the shift:

• @rektcapital: “BTC has lost mid-range support — the next macro support cluster sits lower.”
• @CryptoTony_: “Below $90K, the market becomes vulnerable to an extended corrective move.”

Sentiment is clearly defensive — but not yet capitulated — which often precedes another leg down.

Scenario 3 — Bearish Continuation Toward $78K–$72K

If Bitcoin fails to defend the $85K support, bearish continuation takes control of the market.

Why This Scenario Is Increasingly Likely

• Exchange inflows rising → whales positioning to sell.
• Stablecoin liquidity declining → weaker buy-side pressure on major dips.
• RSI remains below 40 → momentum is still decisively bearish.
• MACD divergence expanding → trend weakening with confirmation.
• Macro backdrop turning risk-off as equities slide and volatility rises.

Downside Targets

• Target 1: $82K
• Target 2: $78K
• Target 3: $72K → major weekly demand & liquidity region.

These levels align closely with high-timeframe liquidity pools and historical support clusters.

Invalidation (Bullish Recovery Threshold)

A fast reclaim of $90K–$92K would neutralize the bearish setup and return Bitcoin into a neutral or recovery phase.

Technical Setup: Liquidity Will Decide December

High-timeframe analysis shows Bitcoin has broken below its 2024 parabolic trendline, forming:

• A macro lower high →
• Followed by a decisive lower low, ending the prior parabola.

Additional structural elements:

• Bollinger Bands show strong expansion → volatility spike confirms trend acceleration.
• Liquidity pools:
  • Below: $82K, $78K
  • Deeper: $72K major demand
  • Above: $94K, $101K

The first major liquidity pool breached will determine December’s directional momentum.

You can follow evolving technical setups in our
Weekly Crypto Price Forecast archive.

Weekly Outlook: Bears Maintain Control Unless $90K–$92K Reclaimed

After one of the strongest corrections in months, Bitcoin remains in a fragile recovery zone where sellers continue to dominate.

This week’s key drivers:

• ETF inflow/outflow shifts
• U.S. macro signals (yields, equities, risk appetite)
• Whale flows + stablecoin liquidity
• Market reaction around the critical $85K boundary

Without strong reversal signals, downside pressure remains the path of least resistance.

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