Solana ETF Odds Hit 91% as Staking Added to SEC Filings

Updated Solana ETF filings now include staking to satisfy regulators, and approval odds for 2025 have soared to 91% according to Polymarket.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has become notorious for dragging its feet when it comes to approving crypto-based ETFs. This has led to growing uncertainty in the industry, especially around altcoins like Solana (SOL). However, new developments suggest the tide may be turning—and fast.

To address regulatory concerns, major firms including Bitwise, Grayscale, and Canary have revised their S-1 filings with the SEC to include staking mechanisms. This move would allow ETF funds to earn passive rewards by staking the Solana they hold, a clear attempt to align with evolving SEC expectations.

Despite the SEC’s slow pace, optimism is surging. According to prediction market Polymarket, the odds of a Solana ETF being approved in 2025 have jumped to 91%. This bullish sentiment reflects growing confidence in regulatory clarity around altcoin ETFs.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart added valuable perspective, noting that ETF approvals are rarely quick or straightforward:

“I think there needs to be a back and forth with the SEC and issuers to iron out details, so I doubt it [an immediate approval]. If anyone remembers the Bitcoin ETF launch, there were a lot of filings over the preceding couple months before launch.”

This cautious optimism mirrors the historical path of the spot Bitcoin ETF, which took over a decade to gain approval—finally launching in January 2024 after years of regulatory delays and multiple revisions.

VanEck was the first U.S.-based asset manager to propose a Solana ETF earlier in 2024, and one of the last to amend its S-1 to include staking. Meanwhile, BlackRock has remained noticeably absent from the Solana ETF race. Seyffart noted:

“They haven’t yet. But I would not be surprised if they were to eventually do that. But right now it doesn’t seem like they will be in the first wave (whenever these launch).”

Despite the SEC’s silence, the markets remain confident. Solana is currently trading at $146.40, following a modest 0.92% daily gain. Seyffart further clarified that delays don’t necessarily indicate rejection:

“Delays on spot crypto ETFs are expected. A bunch of XRP ETPs have dates in next few days. If we’re gonna see early approvals from the SEC on any of these assets — I wouldn’t expect to see them until late June or early July at absolute earliest. More likely to be in early Q4.”

In summary, while the SEC has yet to act, the groundwork for Solana ETF approval is already taking shape. With staking included in filings and market sentiment overwhelmingly positive, the crypto world may see another landmark ETF approval in the not-so-distant future.

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