Bitcoin RSI Pattern Signals Trouble—Crash Toward $95K Could Be Next

Bitcoin recent strength above $110K might be short-lived. A key RSI breakdown has reappeared, historically signaling major pullbacks.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding its ground above the critical $110,000 support mark, but technical analysts are sounding alarms. The market leader is pulling back from the $120,000 resistance zone, and a historically bearish indicator is flashing once again.

According to crypto strategist Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now fallen below its 14-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a signal that has previously led to substantial price declines. Martinez shared his analysis on August 6, noting the pattern’s track record.

Looking back, in June 2024, this same RSI breach preceded a nearly 23% correction in Bitcoin’s price. Similarly, a breakdown in December 2024 led to a more than 25% plunge. Now, as the pattern reemerges in August 2025, BTC is trading around $113,000 and could be at risk of another sharp drop.

Martinez suggests that if history repeats, Bitcoin might shed 20%–30% of its recent gains, targeting a potential retracement to the $95,000 zone.

This bearish outlook is further amplified by broader market fatigue. Bitcoin was unable to reclaim the $115,000 level after briefly testing it, hinting at fading bullish momentum.

On-chain signals back up the concern. On August 5, Bitcoin whales—wallets dormant for 7 to 10 years—moved 3,000 BTC in a single transaction. Such movements historically coincide with local market tops and often foreshadow major corrections.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $114,188, showing a modest decline of 0.25% over the past 24 hours and a 1.3% slide for the week.

Technically, the asset still sits slightly above its 50-day SMA at $112,473, which may offer short-term support. However, the 14-day RSI has dropped to 46.56, suggesting a weakening bullish trend. Despite the fact that Bitcoin remains well above its 200-day SMA of $91,911, longer-term momentum seems intact, but the neutral sentiment and bearish signals could point to consolidation or even a deeper correction ahead.

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