Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Signal Bullish Shift — $125,000 Target Emerges

Recent data including NVT ratio, whale accumulation, and expected Fed interest rate cuts are aligning to suggest that Bitcoin may be heading toward a $125,000 breakout. On-chain indicators and macro tailwinds are reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin on-chain metrics for September 2025 reflect a growing transition from speculative trading toward fundamentals-driven confidence. According to a report by AInvest, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has recently crossed a “golden cross” threshold of approximately 1.51, a level that in past cycles distinguished speculative peaks from solid valuation levels. In parallel, about 74% of Bitcoin supply is now considered illiquid — meaning those coins have not moved for extended periods, reducing effective float.

Supply constraints following the 2024 halving have reduced new issuance, while institutional accumulation (including large holdings by companies like MicroStrategy) continues to pile up BTC. These forces are creating what many analysts believe is a scarcity squeeze. Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators—like rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve and signs of U.S. dollar depreciation—are providing tailwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The report from AInvest projects a probabilistic breakout toward $125,000 by late September 2025. Key inputs in the model include expected rate cuts (25 basis points), institutional ETF inflows totaling tens of billions, and the tightening of supply via long-term holders and whales. Also relevant are metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, wholesale address growth, and shrinking active supply.

Risk factors remain: overbought conditions indicated by some of the metrics (e.g., MVRV approaching high levels), possible macro shocks, inflation not cooling as quickly as hoped, and regulatory uncertainty. Should these risks materialize, corrections could follow even in a broadly bullish scenario. But for now, the momentum appears strongly tilted toward upside.

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