Bitcoin Hits Pause as On-Chain Metrics Signal Cooling Phase Ahead

Bitcoin bullish momentum is stalling, as on-chain indicators suggest investors are beginning to offload profits. Experts now expect a consolidation period before the next major move.

Bitcoin has entered what analysts describe as a “cooling phase,” with fresh on-chain data flashing multiple sell signals at the close of May 2025. According to blockchain researcher Adler, the Net UTXO Supply Ratio—a key measure of unrealized gains and investor conviction—has now triggered four consecutive sell alerts.

The ratio, which dropped sharply from its recent peak, typically reflects declining incentive for holders to maintain their positions. When the indicator trends downward, it often signals that profit-taking is underway, and distribution to newer buyers becomes more likely.

Adler outlined two key technical scenarios for Bitcoin’s price behavior in the short term. The primary expectation involves a horizontal consolidation, with BTC fluctuating between $95,000 and $105,000. This range would provide the network time to digest recent gains and allow the Net UTXO Supply Ratio to stabilize between 0.85 and 0.9—a zone typically associated with market rebalancing.

The alternative scenario presents a potential pullback toward the $92,000–$96,000 range. In this case, Bitcoin could retest its 200-day moving average at approximately $94,700 or revisit a high-volume buy zone clustered around $92,000. Adler emphasized that this would not be a bearish reversal, but rather a healthy correction after an overheated price run.

In broader context, Adler pointed out that Bitcoin’s rally, while structurally intact, has been driven by rapid inflows and speculative energy. The recent surge in supply, without matching demand, highlights a maturing cycle—one that now requires a cooldown phase to shake out excess leverage and reset momentum.

Market analysts believe this reset is both natural and necessary. As profit-takers reduce exposure, it creates room for stronger hands and institutional interest to accumulate, setting the foundation for Bitcoin’s next potential leg upward.

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