Weekly Bitcoin Forecast: Bullish Scenario — BTC Attempts a Recovery Rally (Dec 22–28, 2025)

Bitcoin enters the final full trading week of the year attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. While the broader structure remains fragile, short-term signals suggest conditions for a Bitcoin recovery rally may be forming.

Market Overview: Selling Pressure Begins to Fade

After retreating from November highs, Bitcoin has spent recent sessions consolidating above a local demand zone. Momentum on the sell side has visibly weakened, and spot buyers are cautiously stepping back in near historically reactive price levels.

Order flow data and derivatives positioning indicate reduced panic behavior compared to earlier drawdowns. According to recent Bitcoin News reports, this type of slowdown in selling pressure often precedes short-term corrective moves, especially during low-liquidity holiday periods.

You can see more updates and market stories in our dedicated Bitcoin News section.

Bullish Scenario Analysis: Conditions for a Relief Rally

The bullish scenario assumes Bitcoin can defend its current base and reclaim near-term resistance, triggering a Bitcoin recovery rally rather than a full trend reversal.

Key bullish factors supporting this scenario include:

• RSI (Daily): Recovering from oversold territory, signaling bearish momentum exhaustion.
• MACD: Still negative but flattening, a common precursor to corrective upside moves.
• Price Structure: BTC is attempting to hold above a local demand zone around $87,000–$88,000.
• On-Chain Data: Insights from Glassnode and CryptoQuant suggest exchange inflows have slowed, while long-term holders remain largely inactive—historically a stabilizing signal.
• Market Psychology: Analysts frequently note that sharp sell-offs are often followed by technical rebounds, even within broader downtrends.

As covered previously in BTCNews.space historical analyses, Bitcoin recovery rally setups often emerge when leverage is flushed and spot-driven demand quietly returns.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, Bitcoin must defend support and gradually reclaim resistance:

• Support: $87,000
• Resistance: $91,500 → $94,000
• Invalidation: Daily close below $85,000

Bullish targets:
$91,500 → $94,000 → $97,000

From a structure perspective, a clean reclaim of the EMA20 on the daily chart—ideally accompanied by rising volume—would significantly strengthen the case for a Bitcoin recovery rally.

Technical Setup: Volume Is the Deciding Factor

Price alone is not enough. For upside continuation, Bitcoin must show expanding volume as it challenges overhead resistance. Without confirmation, any rally risks remaining corrective rather than impulsive.

Low-liquidity conditions toward year-end could exaggerate moves in both directions, making intraday volatility likely. Traders should expect sharp reactions near resistance zones.

Weekly Outlook: Recovery, Not Reversal

A bullish outcome this week would most likely take the form of a controlled rebound rather than a confirmed trend shift. The broader macro structure still requires rebuilding, but short-term conditions favor at least one upside attempt.

As highlighted in the Weekly Crypto Price Forecast section, such recovery phases often serve as recalibration points for market sentiment heading into the new year.

Summary

This bullish scenario outlines a Bitcoin recovery rally from key support, not a definitive trend reversal. As long as BTC holds above $87,000 and reclaims short-term resistance with volume, upside targets toward $94,000–$97,000 remain technically plausible.

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