Weekly Bitcoin Forecast | Bearish Scenario: Downtrend Risks Persist Into Early 2026 (Dec 29 – Jan 4)

Despite short-term stabilization attempts, Bitcoin’s broader technical structure remains fragile. As the market approaches the turn of the year, unresolved resistance and weak momentum leave downside risks firmly in play heading into early 2026.

Market Overview

Bitcoin continues to trade below its most important moving averages, confirming that the dominant trend remains bearish. While selling pressure has slowed compared to November’s sharp decline, recovery attempts have been shallow and short-lived.

According to recent Bitcoin News coverage, this type of price behavior often reflects distribution rather than accumulation, especially when rebounds fail to reclaim key technical levels. Sellers continue to defend higher price zones, preventing any meaningful trend reversal.

You can see more updates and market stories in our dedicated Bitcoin News section.

Bearish Scenario Analysis

The bearish scenario assumes that the broader downtrend resumes after a temporary pause.

Key bearish factors include:

• Price below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200, confirming structural weakness across short-, mid-, and long-term timeframes.
• MACD remains firmly negative, with no confirmed bullish crossover.
• RSI (Daily) struggles to sustain moves above neutral levels, signaling weak buyer conviction.
• On-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant shows intermittent exchange inflows, often associated with sell-side pressure.
• Miner behavior remains cautious, with limited signs of aggressive holding.
• Analysts such as @CryptoTony_ frequently warn that weak rebounds within downtrends can precede renewed sell-offs.

Critical Levels to Watch

• Breakdown trigger: $87,000
• Downside targets:
• $84,000
• $81,000
• $78,000
• Invalidation level: Daily close above $95,000

A clean loss of the $87,000 support zone would likely accelerate bearish continuation.

Technical Setup & Resistance Zones

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim the $92,000–$95,000 resistance area. This zone aligns with multiple moving averages and prior breakdown levels, making it a key decision point.

If price is rejected again from this region while sell volume increases, it would strongly favor bearish continuation. Similar setups documented in past Bitcoin News analyses often resolved with further downside before any sustainable recovery.

Institutional & On-Chain Context

From an institutional perspective, risk-off positioning and year-end balance adjustments continue to limit upside participation. On-chain metrics do not yet reflect the type of aggressive accumulation typically seen near major cycle lows.

Until these dynamics shift, downside risk remains elevated.

Outlook for the Week

Under the bearish scenario:

• Volatility may increase near key support levels.
• Failed bounce attempts could trigger momentum-driven sell-offs.
• A deeper retracement into the low $80,000s cannot be ruled out if support breaks.

Traders should remain cautious as liquidity conditions normalize after the holidays.

Summary

The bearish scenario remains the highest-risk outcome and aligns closely with Bitcoin’s prevailing technical structure. Without a decisive reclaim of resistance, downside risks persist into early 2026.

Explore additional scenario-based insights in our Weekly Crypto Price Forecast section.

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