Weekly Bitcoin Forecast: Bearish Scenario — Downtrend Pressure Persists (Dec 22–28, 2025)

Bitcoin enters the final full trading week before year-end still under heavy technical pressure. Despite brief stabilization attempts, the broader market structure remains damaged, keeping downside risks firmly in focus.

Market Overview: Sellers Retain Structural Control

Bitcoin continues to trade well below its key moving averages, reinforcing bearish dominance across higher timeframes. Every recovery attempt over recent sessions has been met with selling pressure, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation.

According to recent Bitcoin News coverage, such price behavior often reflects a market still searching for a true demand floor rather than preparing for reversal.

You can see more updates and market stories in our dedicated Bitcoin News section.

Bearish Scenario Analysis: Trend Continuation Risk

The bearish scenario assumes continuation of the prevailing downtrend, with lower highs and weak rebounds acting as confirmation signals. This Bitcoin bearish outlook is supported by a convergence of technical and on-chain indicators:

• Moving Averages: Price remains below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200, confirming structural weakness.
• MACD: Deeply negative with no confirmed bullish crossover, indicating sustained downside momentum.
• RSI: Fails to hold above the mid-range, reflecting weak buying conviction.
• On-Chain Signals: Intermittent exchange inflows suggest opportunistic selling, while miner behavior remains cautious.
• Market Commentary: Analysts such as @CryptoTony_ frequently note that shallow bounces within downtrends often precede renewed sell-offs.

In previous BTCNews.space analyses, similar setups aligned closely with extended downside phases. As long as this Bitcoin bearish outlook remains intact, rallies are likely corrective rather than impulsive.

Critical Levels to Watch

• Breakdown trigger: $87,000
• Downside targets: $84,000 → $81,000 → $78,000
• Invalidation: Daily close above $94,000

Technical Setup: Resistance Overhead, Liquidity Below

Technically, failure to reclaim the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone would further confirm bearish continuation. This area coincides with prior breakdown levels and clustered moving averages, making it a high-supply region.

If selling volume increases during another rejection, downside acceleration could follow quickly as liquidity pockets below $87,000 are tested. Historically, such moves tend to unfold rapidly once support gives way.

Weekly Outlook: Risk Remains Skewed Lower

For the December 22–28 window, the Bitcoin bearish outlook remains the highest-probability scenario. If broader risk-off sentiment persists and buyers fail to defend $87,000 convincingly, Bitcoin could resume its decline toward deeper support zones.

Volatility may increase around support breaks, particularly during thin holiday liquidity conditions, amplifying downside moves.

Summary

The bearish scenario aligns most closely with the current technical structure. Until Bitcoin reclaims key resistance levels with volume, downside risks remain dominant and trend continuation should not be ignored.

More scenario-based insights are available in our Weekly Crypto Price Forecast section.

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