Institutional Flow Drought and Support Break Put Bitcoin on Watch: Could It Fall to $72K?

Institutional inflows into Bitcoin have slowed dramatically in recent weeks, signaling possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to defend its $100,000 support zone, a deeper correction toward $72,000 could unfold in the months ahead.

Institutional Flows Dry Up as Caution Returns

According to CryptoQuant latest institutional flow data, Bitcoin on-chain inflows from ETFs and large wallets have dropped to a three-month low — suggesting that major investors are pausing accumulation.
Throughout October, weekly net inflows averaged $280 million, compared to over $1.1 billion per week in early September when the rally began.

“The data clearly shows that institutional demand has cooled,” said an analyst from CryptoQuant. “Without renewed inflows, Bitcoin’s support structure around $100K looks increasingly fragile.”

This weakening demand mirrors similar patterns seen during the mid-cycle corrections of 2021 and 2023, when institutional outflows preceded multi-week declines.

Market Impact: The $100K Level Under Heavy Scrutiny

The $100,000–$102,000 range remains the critical psychological and structural floor for Bitcoin. On-chain data shows that more than 400,000 BTC were accumulated near this zone — effectively forming a “cost basis wall.”

However, analysts warn that if this wall breaks, cascading liquidations could accelerate the move down to $90K, and potentially as low as $72K, which aligns with historical retracement levels (38.2% from cycle highs).

Technical indicators reinforce this cautious outlook:

• RSI has drifted below 45 on the daily chart, showing loss of upward momentum.
• MACD signals a bearish divergence that began forming in mid-October.
• Funding rates on perpetuals are neutral, suggesting no aggressive short covering yet.

“We’re seeing early signs of structural weakness — especially if long-term holders begin to take profits into this zone,” noted analysts at Glassnode.

Institutional Caution: ETF Slowdown and Risk-Off Behavior

Recent filings show that major Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity FBTC have posted their first consecutive weekly outflows since launch.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning on CME has tilted neutral, with reduced open interest across institutional accounts.

This slowdown coincides with broader macro caution as the Federal Reserve hints at delaying rate cuts — pushing investors toward dollar-denominated assets and away from high-volatility plays.

“It’s not capitulation, but it’s a clear pause,” said a trader at Galaxy Digital. “Institutions aren’t selling — they’re just not buying aggressively anymore.”

If inflows fail to resume, Bitcoin upward structure could transition into an extended consolidation phase or even a multi-quarter correction.

What Could Reverse the Trend

Despite the warning signals, several catalysts could restore confidence:

1. ETF expansion in Asia or the EU could reignite global demand.
2. Regulatory clarity on stablecoins and custody could attract sidelined capital.
3. Macro easing (rate cuts or liquidity injections) could trigger renewed institutional rotation into crypto.

Bitcoin remains structurally healthy in the long term, with HODLer supply at record highs (over 70% unmoved for 6+ months) — a sign that conviction remains even as momentum cools.

Long-Term Outlook: Between Correction and Continuation

If the $100K floor holds, Bitcoin could consolidate for several months before resuming its climb toward new highs.
However, a break below this zone would confirm a technical regime change, opening the path toward $90K and $72K, where long-term support clusters exist.

“Cycles don’t die from lack of demand — they reset. What we’re seeing is a reset in institutional appetite before the next leg,” summarized BTCNews.space analysts.

Bitcoin reaction over the coming weeks will reveal whether this is a healthy pause — or the start of a deeper structural correction.

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