Bitcoin Breaks Below 200-Day Average — Are Bears Gaining Control?
Bitcoin has slipped under its long-watched 200-day moving average around $109,800, sparking renewed bearish sentiment among traders as volatility returns to the crypto market.
📉 Market Overview
This decline coincides with a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets as investors brace for delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Bitcoin briefly tested $108,500 before stabilizing near $107,200, with intraday volatility exceeding 4%.
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📊 Technical Breakdown: Why the 200-Day SMA Matters
The 200-day moving average has long been seen as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Historically, Bitcoin’s dips below this level have preceded corrections ranging between 10–25%, depending on broader macro trends.
Recent TradingView data shows:
- SMA (200): $109,800
- SMA (50): $111,600 — now flattening after a multi-week uptrend
- RSI (14): 44.8 — signaling growing bearish momentum
- MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed on the 4H and daily charts
- Volume: Rising sell volume on Coinbase and Binance over the last 48 hours
Fairlead’s Stockton notes that “failure to reclaim the 200-day average within the next few sessions would confirm a technical breakdown.”
A potential support zone lies near $103K–$105K, with deeper risk extending to the psychological $100K mark.
🧩 On-Chain and Institutional Signals
On-chain analytics from Glassnode indicate a notable shift in market behavior:
- Exchange inflows have risen 8% week-over-week — a bearish indicator signaling profit-taking or hedging.
- Long-term holder distribution increased slightly, suggesting light selling from early-cycle investors.
- Futures funding rates have turned neutral to negative, showing reduced bullish leverage.
Institutional sentiment appears cautious. CryptoQuant reports muted inflows into major ETF products and a slowdown in OTC desk activity — often a precursor to consolidation or further downside.
Cross-category comparison with Ethereum shows ETH maintaining stronger structural support around its 100-day average, potentially signaling rotation within large portfolios.
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⚠️ Market Sentiment & Trader Reaction
The breakdown has ignited debate across trader circles.
Popular analyst @RektCapital wrote on X (Twitter):
“Bitcoin is testing the same macro structure it defended in 2024. Lose $109K cleanly, and we could see $96K–$100K fast.”
Meanwhile, trader @CryptoTony observed,
“This isn’t panic yet — it’s a volatility reset. If we reclaim $110K, the narrative flips bullish again.”
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Despite short-term weakness, derivatives data shows no extreme liquidation spikes, suggesting an orderly market rather than capitulation.
🔮 Long-Term Outlook: Bearish Reset or Opportunity?
Macro-wise, November could remain volatile as traders navigate interest rate uncertainty and fading ETF inflows. However, Bitcoin long-term fundamentals — including rising hash rate, growing self-custody metrics, and consistent institutional accumulation during dips — remain intact.
If history rhymes, a drop toward the $100K–$103K zone could form a “higher low” setup for the next leg higher heading into early 2026.
📈 Technical Zones to Watch
| Zone | Type | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| $112K–$115K | Resistance | Breakdown zone from late October |
| $109.8K | Key SMA | Lost 200-day average, bearish alert |
| $105K–$103K | Support | High probability liquidity zone |
| $100K | Psychological level | Major defense line for bulls |
| $96K | Bearish target | Historical retracement zone |
🧭 Summary
Bitcoin slip under the 200-day average doesn’t confirm a full trend reversal yet — but traders are watching the next few sessions closely. If BTC fails to recover above $110K soon, the bearish momentum could intensify, opening the door to deeper tests near $100K.
Explore more insights in our Weekly Crypto Price Forecast section and stay ahead of the next major market move.
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