Bitcoin Volatility Hits 563-Day Low as Arthur Hayes Predicts $1M BTC by 2028

Bitcoin volatility drops to a 563-day low, signaling asset maturity. Arthur Hayes says BTC could hit $1M by 2028 amid ETF inflows and rising institutional adoption.

April 30, 2025 – Bitcoin is showing strong signs of maturation as a global financial asset, with market data revealing that its weekly volatility has plunged to a 563-day low, a level not seen since late 2023. This reduced fluctuation is now sparking conversation around BTC’s transformation from a speculative trade into a long-term portfolio staple.

According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, the stability marks a turning point for Bitcoin. The drop in volatility, combined with declining exchange deposits, suggests increasing investor confidence and a shift toward long-term custody over short-term speculation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market cap has surged to $1.87 trillion, making it the seventh-largest asset globally—surpassing Silver, Meta, and Saudi Aramco—according to CompaniesMarketCap.

📉 Shrinking Exchange Balances, Rising Conviction

Data from Bitfinex analysts highlights a “meaningful decline” in Bitcoin exchange deposits, reinforcing the idea of reduced sell pressure.

“The divergence between stable pricing and falling exchange balances is especially important in a week that followed a $7.2 billion options expiry,” said the Bitfinex team.

They further suggested that this setup—marked by constrained supply and consistent ETF inflows—historically precedes bullish continuation phases.

💼 Institutional Inflows Strengthen the Case

Institutional interest continues to grow. On April 29, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF witnessed a staggering $970 million in daily inflows, its second-largest on record.

This wave of institutional participation is viewed as one of the most critical tailwinds for Bitcoin, helping validate the asset’s legitimacy and potential.

🔮 Hayes: $1M BTC by 2028

Crypto pioneer and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the stars are aligning for a monumental surge. Speaking at Token2049 in Dubai, Hayes boldly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028.

“It’s time to go long everything,” Hayes stated. “More money printing means more fuel for Bitcoin.”

He specifically pointed to U.S. Treasury buybacks—where the government repurchases outstanding bonds—as a looming liquidity catalyst that could send BTC soaring.

📊 Long-Term Forecasts: Even Higher

Joining the bullish outlook is Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, who recently stated that the probability of Bitcoin hitting $1.5 million by 2030 has increased. She attributes this to the continued “institutionalization” of Bitcoin.

“BTC’s risk-return profile has diverged from traditional assets, making it increasingly attractive to large asset managers,” Wood explained.

✅ Conclusion

Bitcoin’s declining volatility and rising capital inflows mark a new chapter in its evolution—from digital experiment to global macro asset. With BlackRock, ARK Invest, and other institutional players entering the scene, the vision of a $1M Bitcoin is no longer just a meme—it’s a strategic forecast backed by capital and conviction.

As investors debate whether this is the final stretch before six-figure territory, one thing is certain: Bitcoin’s quiet confidence is echoing across global markets.

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