Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Will Bulls Defend Key Support or Deeper Correction Ahead?

Bitcoin price faces critical levels after a volatile week, testing key support at $80,000. Analysts weigh CME gaps, realized price metrics, and institutional demand to determine its next move.

Bitcoin Price Faces Key Support Test: Bullish Rebound or Further Decline?

Bitcoin price is at a pivotal moment after a turbulent week of trading, fluctuating between $80,000 and $95,000. As of now, BTC has dropped below the psychological $80,000 mark, sparking concerns about a potential deeper correction.

Market analysts are closely watching technical and on-chain indicators to assess whether Bitcoin can reclaim higher levels or faces further downside pressure.

CME Gap Suggests Possible Retest of $90,000

According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin’s CME gap formation is emerging as a key short-term target. BTC opened at $82,110 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), with an open gap extending up to $86,000.

A similar pattern occurred in late February, when Bitcoin’s price opened at $95,000 after CME’s prior closing price of $84,665. That previous $10,000 gap was filled within 19 hours, briefly pushing BTC below the $84,665 level.

Based on historical patterns, analysts expect Bitcoin may attempt to fill the current CME gap within the next 1-2 days, potentially retesting $86,000-$90,000. However, CryptoQuant cautions that this does not guarantee a full trend reversal in the near term.

$83,000 Realized Price Level Becomes a Key Support Threshold

Beyond the CME gap, Bitcoin is also testing the $83,000 realized price level, which represents the average acquisition price for unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) aged 3-6 months. This level is crucial because it reflects the average entry price of mid-term holders who bought during the late 2024 rally.

Historically, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support above the realized price of mid-term holders has been a strong indicator of continued upward momentum. If BTC holds this threshold, bullish sentiment could strengthen, driving price action toward the CME gap targets around $90,000.

However, a failure to hold this support level could trigger a shift in market sentiment, leading to a potential distribution phase where mid-term holders begin offloading their positions.

Negative Coinbase Premium Signals Short-Term Caution

Despite Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, the negative Coinbase premium is raising concerns for short-term traders.

This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase Pro (a platform favored by U.S. institutional investors) with Binance, is currently in negative territory, signaling weak institutional demand.

When Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance, it often indicates strong buying pressure from U.S. investors, supporting a bullish outlook. Conversely, a negative premium suggests that institutional demand is lagging, which could limit Bitcoin’s upside potential in the near term.

CryptoQuant analysts advise patience, stating:

“Waiting until the premium is back to positive might be the safest bet you can make in trading.”

Long-Term Projections Remain Strong

Despite the cautious short-term outlook, CryptoQuant maintains a bullish long-term forecast, projecting Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2026. This projection aligns with recent predictions by major financial institutions, which have also begun forecasting similar or even higher price targets for Bitcoin.

While short-term volatility may persist, the broader market trend remains firmly bullish, with institutions continuing to validate Bitcoin’s long-term potential as a major financial asset.

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