Bitcoin 2025 Price Could Hit $150K to $400K, Says Blockware Amid Fed Policies and SBR Speculation

Blockware predicts Bitcoin could reach $150K to $400K in 2025 depending on Trump Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) plan, Federal Reserve rate policies, and corporate adoption trends.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025 could vary dramatically based on three key factors: the implementation of Donald Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) plan, Federal Reserve policies on interest rates, and the pace of corporate Bitcoin adoption, according to Blockware Solutions.

In its December 28 market forecast report, the crypto mining firm outlined three potential scenarios, presenting a “bear case,” “base case,” and “bull case” for Bitcoin’s price.

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Bear Case: $150K Target

In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin could rise to $150,000, representing a 58% increase from its current price of $94,981. This outcome assumes that:

  1. Trump does not implement the SBR policy early in his administration.
  2. The Federal Reserve reverses its anticipated interest rate cuts.
  3. Long-term Bitcoin holders aggressively sell off their holdings.

Base Case: $225K Target

In the base case, Bitcoin is projected to reach $225,000. This scenario hinges on:

  1. The US government converting its existing holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
  2. The Federal Reserve proceeding with expected interest rate cuts.
  3. Corporate Bitcoin adoption maintaining its current momentum.

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, anticipates that Trump will issue an executive order on his first day in office to designate Bitcoin as a US reserve asset, which could support the base case.

Bull Case: $400K Target

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For Bitcoin to hit the bull case target of $400,000, three favorable conditions must align:

  1. The Federal Reserve adopts a dovish monetary stance, increasing liquidity.
  2. Corporate Bitcoin adoption accelerates, with one of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla—adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
  3. The US government not only turns its holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve but actively accumulates more Bitcoin.

However, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, suggested in a December 27 report that the US government is unlikely to buy Bitcoin outright in 2025. Instead, he predicts it will focus on creating a stockpile using its existing holdings while continuing discussions on Bitcoin reserve policy.

Corporate Involvement and Challenges

Corporate adoption is seen as a critical driver of Bitcoin’s price. However, resistance remains, as demonstrated by Microsoft shareholders voting against a proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during their December 10 annual meeting.

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Conclusion: A Market Poised for Major Moves

The varying scenarios highlight Bitcoin’s dependence on macroeconomic policies and institutional dynamics. While $400K represents an ambitious target, even the bear case of $150K signals significant growth potential, keeping investors and analysts focused on the unfolding developments in 2025.

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