Wallets Signal TON Breakout as Price Battles $3.50 Barrier

Toncoin is witnessing aggressive whale accumulation and surging derivatives activity, despite most holders being at a loss. Key levels at $3.31 and $3.50 could trigger a short squeeze and define the asset’s next major move.

Toncoin (TON) is showing powerful signs of accumulation by its top 100 whale addresses, with a persistent increase in holdings since 2021—indicating long-term confidence in the asset’s trajectory. Despite recent price struggles, whale behavior suggests a brewing breakout, with mounting liquidity and market participation reinforcing the case.

According to IntoTheBlock data, 71.28% of all TON addresses remain in profit at press time, while only 11.52% are in the red—minimizing immediate sell-side pressure. Most of these profitable positions originate below the $3.05 zone, establishing it as a strong support base. However, substantial resistance is forming between $5 and $6, where loss-recovery selling could intensify.

On-chain transaction volumes have exploded, particularly in the $1M–$10M range (up 80%) and above $10M (up 50%). This rising institutional engagement is mirrored by strong mid-tier growth, indicating broad participation across the TON ecosystem.

Meanwhile, derivatives data further strengthens the bullish outlook. Volume jumped 14.95% to $174.86 million, and Open Interest climbed 4.28% to $230.72 million—underscoring rising speculative interest. Notably, Binance’s liquidation heatmap highlights short squeeze zones around $3.31 and $3.50, meaning any breakout past these levels could accelerate bullish momentum.

TON’s symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a critical juncture, with price consolidation between $3.097 support and $3.505 resistance. A decisive move above the triangle could propel TON toward the $4.72 mark. Conversely, a break below $3.097 could result in a retest of $2.28.

Despite bearish sentiment among some holders, current metrics—including whale wallet growth, stable support zones, and surging derivatives engagement—indicate the possibility of a bullish breakout rather than a breakdown. If the $3.50 resistance is flipped into support, the path toward higher targets appears viable.

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