Toncoin Bullish Momentum Faces Profit-Taking and Distribution Challenges

Toncoin recent bullish momentum faces resistance as profit-taking and distribution activities rise. Despite these challenges, technical indicators suggest room for further growth, with close attention needed on Bitcoin influence.
Toncoin [TON] is navigating a critical juncture as it contends with rising profit-taking and distribution activities, which threaten its bullish trajectory. After facing rejection at the $6.8 resistance level last weekend, Toncoin bulls have shown resilience, attempting to establish an uptrend despite these headwinds.
The 1-day chart of TON reveals a bullish structure that persisted even after a retracement to $4.72 earlier in August. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has climbed significantly over the past ten days, indicating strong demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that momentum is on the verge of shifting favorably for the bulls.
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Toncoin’s bullish momentum was highlighted by the breach of the $6.8 resistance on August 14, which flipped the daily market structure to a bullish stance. This move was supported by strong online engagement, with the daily active addresses metric also trending upward since mid-July. These factors point to sustained demand and adoption for Toncoin.

However, the recent distribution phase raises concerns. Since August 4, the mean coin age of Toncoin has been trending downward, signaling increased profit-taking activity as prices rose. The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio remains positive, suggesting that this profit-taking could continue. Despite the distribution, the dormant circulation metric has remained flat, offering some relief that the distribution phase may not yet signal a bearish reversal.

Overall, while technical and on-chain metrics indicate potential for further bullish growth, Toncoin investors should be cautious of volatility, particularly given the +0.75 30-day correlation between TON and Bitcoin [BTC] price movements. A shift in Bitcoin’s short-term trend could impact Toncoin’s trajectory.
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