Bitwise Stands by $200K Bitcoin Prediction as Dollar Weakens and Global Trade Shifts

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reaffirms Bitcoin could hit $200K in 2025, citing U.S. dollar decline and global de-dollarization as bullish catalysts for BTC.

In a reaffirmation of long-term optimism, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has doubled down on his earlier prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. The renewed confidence comes amidst significant macroeconomic upheaval—most notably, a weakening U.S. dollar and the intensifying global move away from dollar dominance.

In an April 9 blog post, Hougan highlighted how political pressures, particularly the Trump administration’s aggressive trade strategies, are catalyzing a broader transformation in monetary policy. “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” he wrote, asserting that the relationship between dollar weakness and Bitcoin strength has remained consistent across multiple market cycles. “I still think that [$200K target] is in play.”

Hougan pointed specifically to the administration’s proposed 125% tariff on China as an economic wildcard, arguing that such policies may have long-term consequences for the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. This position aligns with commentary from Steve Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who recently criticized the dollar’s dominance for creating “persistent currency distortions” and undermining U.S. manufacturing competitiveness.

According to TradingView, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—a benchmark tracking the dollar against other major currencies—has dropped over 7% since January 2025. This decline, Hougan emphasized, is a powerful signal for investors seeking alternatives to traditional fiat systems. “When the dollar declines, Bitcoin tends to outperform,” he said. “The global reserve system is becoming more fractured, and assets like Bitcoin are poised to play a larger role.”

Adding fuel to this narrative, a report from VanEck revealed that both China and Russia have begun settling selected energy trades in BTC, bypassing the dollar entirely. This marks a pivotal moment in the global shift toward de-dollarization. Crypto analyst Will Clemente added his voice to the bullish chorus, calling Bitcoin “the fastest horse” in today’s macro environment and a “pure liquidity asset.”

Beyond just price speculation, Hougan framed Bitcoin as a growing macro hedge—on par with gold—as geopolitical instability and fiat depreciation erode confidence in traditional financial systems. He noted that Bitcoin’s decentralized architecture and capped supply provide a built-in resilience against inflationary policy and currency volatility.

As international tensions continue to reshape economic alliances and monetary frameworks, Bitwise maintains that Bitcoin is more than just a digital asset—it’s a rising force in the new global monetary order.

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