Bitcoin Drop Below $75K Before April Has Less Than 10% Probability: Analyst

Bitcoin recent volatility has slightly increased the probability of a drop to $75,000 before April, but analysts still consider this scenario unlikely. Derive Sean Dawson estimates a 9.2% chance, citing increased put option demand.

Bitcoin Faces Market Uncertainty Amid Broad Sell-Off

Bitcoin’s price action remains under intense scrutiny as it hovers around the $100,000 mark, with analysts debating the likelihood of a deeper correction. While some traders fear a downturn, experts suggest that the probability of BTC falling below $75,000 in Q1 2025 remains low, despite a recent surge in market volatility.

Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, reported that the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 by March has risen to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in the past 24 hours. This shift is attributed to Bitcoin’s implied volatility rising from 52% to 76%, signaling heightened demand for put options—an indicator of traders hedging against potential losses.

Despite these bearish signals, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading at $102,100 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap data.

Market Reaction to DeepSeek AI’s Impact on Global Markets

Bitcoin’s 6.5% decline on January 27 was largely triggered by a broader financial market sell-off, sparked by China-based AI firm DeepSeek unveiling its latest AI model. The development spooked investors, leading to a sudden pullback across both crypto and stock markets.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered losses, reflecting Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional financial assets. Analysts at Bitfinex observed that Bitcoin is no longer an isolated asset, but now moves in tandem with broader macroeconomic trends.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Mini Financial Crisis Before Bitcoin Hits $250K

Adding another layer to the debate, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could briefly dip to the $70,000 – $75,000 range before experiencing an explosive rally.

Hayes suggests that a short-term liquidity crunch could spark a “mini financial crisis”, forcing central banks to resume money printing. He believes this will act as a catalyst, propelling Bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of 2025.

This aligns with expectations that a weaker U.S. dollar, lower interest rates, and growing institutional adoption will continue to fuel Bitcoin’s long-term bull market.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Despite the short-term bearish sentiment, many analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s trajectory remains strongly bullish heading into 2025. The upcoming halving event, ETF inflows, and institutional demand are expected to act as strong support levels.

While a dip to $75,000 remains a low-probability event, traders are closely monitoring macro trends, Federal Reserve policies, and regulatory shifts that could impact Bitcoin’s next major price movement.

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