Bitcoin Analyst Predicts 82% Chance of Bullish Q4 After Record-Breaking September

Crypto analyst Astronomer suggests an 82% chance of a bullish fourth quarter for Bitcoin based on historical trends. Using past data, Astronomer links Bitcoin’s positive September performance to strong Q4 gains, with a history of green months following a strong September.

Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) has forecast a highly bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024, basing his analysis on historical data and Bitcoin’s remarkable September performance. With an 82% chance of an ultra-bullish Q4, Astronomer presents a compelling case on X (formerly Twitter), noting the possibility of strong gains heading into the year’s final months.

In his analysis, Astronomer highlights how Bitcoin’s price action in September has defied expectations, with the crypto’s performance showing a surprising upward trend. “September is about to close and, to the general public’s surprise, it’s looking green—by a long shot—supporting the breakout thesis we’ve been on for a while now,” Astronomer wrote.

Market Sentiment and Disconnect
Astronomer delves into the market sentiment, pointing to a notable disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. He notes that despite rising optimism, many traders are still cautious or missed out on profits. “Data is and remains data,” he explained, “and after thorough inspection, most traders are either not positioned, took profit too early, or are waiting for a dip to re-enter the market.”

Drawing from his analysis of private trading groups, Astronomer adds, “Most groups have already gone long and taken early profits or are now looking for entry points, further emphasizing how the market is evolving.”

82% Probability for Bullish Q4
Astronomer’s main thesis centers on Bitcoin’s cyclical price history. He points out that whenever Bitcoin ended September with a positive gain, the following three months—October, November, and December—were also positive. “Each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after. This has happened 3/3 times since BTC’s inception,” Astronomer asserts.

While he acknowledges the small data sample, Astronomer remains confident in his forecast, citing additional data points that show the direction of September often sets the tone for Q4. “If September closes above $59k, there’s an 82% chance that Q4 will follow with bullish price action.”

Community Reaction and Caution
Despite the optimistic prediction, some followers expressed skepticism. One user commented, “If September surprised everyone by being green, couldn’t October turn red to everyone’s surprise too?” In response, Astronomer stood by the data, reaffirming his belief in the trends seen historically.

He concludes by advising traders to focus on aligning with market dynamics and historical data, rather than speculating. “It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time, and avoiding regrets from lost opportunities. The goal is to hit your targets without the stress of market speculation.”

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